Housing Crash Concerns with Recession

Often when you hear that we are in a recession, everyone assumes on the horizon is a housing crash.

The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) announced that the U.S. economy is officially in a recession. This did not come as a surprise to many, as the Bureau defines a recession this way:

“A recession is a significant decline in economic activity spread across the economy, normally visible in production, employment, and other indicators. A recession begins when the economy reaches a peak of economic activity and ends when the economy reaches its trough. Between trough and peak, the economy is in an expansion.”

Everyone realizes that the pandemic shut down the country earlier this year, causing a “significant decline in economic activity.”

Though not surprising, headlines announcing the country is in a recession will cause consumers to remember the devastating impact the last recession had on the housing market just over a decade ago.

The real estate market, however, is in a totally different position than it was then. As Mark Fleming, Chief Economist at First American, explained:

“Many still bear scars from the Great Recession and may expect the housing market to follow a similar trajectory in response to the coronavirus outbreak. But, there are distinct differences that indicate the housing market may follow a much different path. While housing led the recession in 2008-2009, this time it may be poised to bring us out of it.”

Four major differences in today’s real estate market are:

1. Families have large sums of equity in their homes
2. We have a shortage of housing inventory, not an overabundance
3. Irresponsible lending no longer exists
4. Home price appreciation is not out of control

We must also realize that a recession does not mean a housing crash will follow, so do not link them together but deem a crash as a symptom of a perfect storm.  In three of the four previous recessions prior to 2008, home values increased. In the other one, home prices depreciated by only 1.9%. That said, the market is healthy and still moving forward. Our Real Estate Agents are still busy and ready to assist you with your real estate needs. Reach out to one of them today at 307-635-0303 or online at cheyennehomestore.com.